Friday, July 28, 2006

The boiling Middle-Eastern cauldron


Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, is a busy person these days. She's flying across the globe, quite literally.The 52 year old, former Stanford professor, now America's top diplomat is on an important mission to diffuse the West Asian crisis. From Washington to Beirut to Tel Aviv to Ramallah to Rome and now to Kuala Lumpur, Secretary Rice is on a whirlwind tour. This of course follows Israel's recent offensive against Lebanon which has sent senior US officials into a tizzy. At the UN Security Council meet, the US vetoed a resolution condemning Israel's actions and a call for an immediate Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. While the world came together in criticizing Israel's actions , the United States resolutely stood behind Israel, calling for the complete disarmament of the Hezbollah, in order to achieve "durable peace in the Middle East". Though America called upon Israel to exercise "utmost restraint", as many as 425 civilians have died as a result of the 17 day military operation in South Lebanon. This includes the death of four UN peace-keepers. This is indeed unacceptable. Nothing can justify the cold-blooded murder of innocent Lebanese civilians including women and children in the name of "holing' out the terrorists. Israel has to learn to respect the lives of civilians other than its own.

The Israeli actions follow the abduction of two of its soldiers by the Hezbollah and rocket attacks on its northern cities. This is in fact consistent with the Jewish State's policy of "Not having any negotiations with terrorists". Well, though India may take a leaf out of this policy, many world leaders made no bones of the fact that Israel's reaction was grossly inappropriate and incommensurate to the initial provocation. This was the sense that one got from the G-8 Summit in St.Petersburg.

Though Israel has full sovereign rights to defend itself, this mindless and blatant use of military force in civilian areas can lead to a regional conflagration.

As Condoleezza Rice prepared to undertake her Middle-East mission, she knew that she was on a crucial mission. Rice, as the architect of US foreign policy had to play the Great Balancing Act. On one hand, she had to allay Arab fears of America trying to shield Israel, thus inviting the ire of millions of Muslims across the world. On the other hand, she had to make sure that America's vital security interests in the region were not undermined. As she shuffled across various places meeting Lebanese PM Siniora, Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmood Abbas, one thing remained clear. America and Israel were on the same boat, both seeing it as a good opportunity to root out the Hezbollah in perpetuity.It could have been a good idea had it not resulted in the loss of hundreds of innocent civilians. Israel cannot and must not use the American shield and get away with this. The United States too finds itself isolated on this issue.

This was evident at an important conference in Rome, where the foreign ministers of 15 governments, including many Arab ones, failed to reach an agreement on ways to resolve the crisis. Almost everyone saw one person as an impediment to the reaching an agreement. Secretary Rice stood her ground saying that a ceasefire would only succeed once the Hezbollah had disarmed. The United States was buying enough time for Israel to finish its military offensive. In tandom, it promised a humanitarian assistance of $ 30 million to Lebanon. This is simply not enough. America should join the international community's calls to Israel for the immediate declaration of a ceasefire. Killing innocent civilians and destroying civil infrastructure in an impoverished country is no way to deal with terrorists. This will only escalate the levels of violence.

How things will turn out in this never ending West-Asian saga, in the days and weeks ahead is something difficult to fathom. Will Israel let go of this opportunity to root out Hezbollah? Will America continue to stand by its ally giving unstinted support? Will Lebanon be nothing more than a mere onlooker in the overall scheme of things? Lot of questions and too little answers. But that is what International Relations is all about, the rich and powerful always get away with things.

In the meantime, Dr. Rice arrived in Malaysia on the final leg of her Eurasian tour, for the ASEAN Regional Forum's Ministerial meet in Kuala Lumpur. ARF is Asia's primary security forum with 25 countries as its members. Though, there is little doubt as to what would dominate its agenda, Dr.Rice seems to have decided to chill out a bit. She will perform a piano recital at the the meeting. The high-flying life of the world's most powerful woman will be in full display as she plays the tunes of America's Foreign Policy at the meet.

America being the global cop, I'm sure the world will be watching with bated breath.

14 comments:

avneesh arputham said...

i think america is totaly screwd up as far as wars are concerned. neither do they have the military sense nor the political sense to carry out something completely and with proper mangement.

even then i feel that what israel is doing in lebanon is not necessarily correct. i kno that there have been many deaths and loss of innocent lives - but the fact remains that in any war there will be loss of lives. wasn't the secon world war justified bcoz it led to hitler's end - even though innumerable people lost there lives in the war

avneesh arputham said...

israel is not wrong! it is simple retaliating for whatever wrong was done to it - and this is not only against hizbollah but also a war against all terrorist organisations which have constatnly been hurting israel.

people around us keep telling us that fighting such wars will only fuel more terror and give them a justification. but the fact remains that even a country like india which has not taken any military action against terrorists - continue to face terrorist strikes. inspite of our ' never ending peace process' we are still faced with terror threats

so isnt israel doing a better thing than us. at least they are fighting against a force as opposed to us indians, who are just sitting and waiting for peace to come and hope that some international action will be taken. if we are so sure of our intelligence, then y cant we take out those bloody camps across the pok? y do we hav to wait for eternity for the world to giv us approval? y cant we act instead of waiting forever

Last Man Standing... said...

well I do agree with a lot of ur views. Israel is justified in seeking a military solution against terrorists. But at some point of time, it will have to declare a ceasfire especially after the killing of 37 children in Qana.It it is only being able to do so, because of the American support it enjoys.However,India,will never dare to cross over to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and start airstrikes against the terrorist camps there because of two reasons-a) It may escalate to a nuclear war. b)India lacks diplomatic support.

But one thing remains clear, India or Israel, there should be no negotiations with terrorists of any kind.

avneesh arputham said...

i think they hav declared a ceasefire for two days to allow people to move out of the area and humanitarian aid. anyway the only possible solution which i can foresee is for israel to keep attacking till the time hizbollah gives up or lebanon forces them to do so. there is hardly no chance of any diplomatic pressure on israel. they have the full backing of the US and will continue till the time their soldiers are released.

as far as india is concerned, we cannot achieve peace with pak without settling kashmir. it is the single most imprtnt issue and has to be settled. but the area where we fuk up is diploacy - we hav no foreign minister who could gather support against pak.

china and US will always support pak over india and therefore there is no chance for us to get a diplomatic solution. inspite of the nuclear threat, the fear of an economic slowdown and UN sanctions may be a bigger problem!

avneesh arputham said...

what we need to do is to get over this obsession with pak. our foreign policy is too pak centric. yar hamre samne pak kya cheez hai! we are an emerging power recognised by the world and we are still concernd with pak which has a host of problems - both economicaly and politicaly.

what we hav to do is to foster closer ties with china and the US. and most importantly we must not be afraid of using our military force against pakistan!

Last Man Standing... said...

As far as the kashmir issue is concerned, there must be complete cessation of terror in the valley before settling the issue of Kashmir...this has been India's position as well. And yes, India must have a full-time foreign minister who doesnt have the NAM/Cold War mindset.He must represent the India of the 21st century, an India that is a rising political,military and economic powerhouse which can flex its muscles in Asia.

Its shockin that India doesnt have a foreign minister since Oct 2005 when Volckergate happened.

As far as US and Chinese positions are concerned, there is a noticeable shift in their policies towards India and Pakistan. The US is exasperated with Pakistan for its non-cooperation to tackle Al-Qaeda terroe modules on the pak-Afghan border. Also, its growing strategic partnership with India has meant that it is more even-handed in its South Asia approach...Condi Rice has been the driving factor for Indo-US ties.Unlike her predecesssor, Colin Powell, she has made sure that US foreign policy is more consonant with its goals in the 21st century...the emergence of China has meant that the US has to cultivate a strategic partner in Asia...and India was the first choice.India's boomin economy also provides a huge opportunity for US companies, somethin that the US govt. can hardly overlook.

China is a totally different ball game.Though both India and China embarked on a strategic partnership last April, China continues to pose the single-largest threat to Indian interests.This threat is larger than the threat posed to us by pakistan.Pakistan is nothin without China's covert and overt help.China's policy vis-a-vis India is that of a "strategic encirclement of India".It wants to limit India's growing clout...it has done so by lobbying against the US-India nuke pact and India's candidature for a permanent seat on the UNSC.It also made sure, tha at the East Asia summit in malaysia last year, India was kept out of the core group of members.China is also buildin a huge naval base right next to the Andamans at the great Coco Islands.Through financial assistance and other soft loans, China is cultivating better ties with Africa(which has huge reservoir of oil)...thus being far ahead of India in the great petroleum race....China recently unveiled to the world the great Tibetan railway...it has also developed the roads leadin to the boredr with India...This is a massive security threat...the Indian govt. must wake up to these facts...and act upon it.

Though we can never contain China, we must engage it effectively and make sure that the trauma of 1962 is not repeated.

avneesh arputham said...

i agree that terror must stop in kashmir but till the time we try to find a solution we will not get peace. also, the terrorists will hav a legitimate reason for continuing their strikes bcoz it is our fault that we hav not lived upto the aims and expectations of the people of kashmir.

we have nt done enof to try and get a solution to the problem - either politicaly or by using other means. most importantly, the world always gets an impression that pakistan is trying to achieve peace but we are trying to stall it because we think that the kashmiris would prefer to be a part of pakistan. inspite of so many peace talks we hav not achieved a single thing till date. our fundamental problem is that the world keeps supporting pakistan bcoz they always appear to be the one who take the first step towards the dialouge process and we always prefer to wait and watch

avneesh arputham said...

as far as our foreign minister is concerned, i think we need to hav someone who has both the tact and the vision to take the country forward and deal and negotiate with major countries. i think the best man for such a job will be someone like manishankar aiyer. i know that he does suffer from the foot-in-the mouth disease but if u look at his performance in the oil misistry then u wil hav to agree that he can do a good job as a foreign minister.

he negotiated so many deals in african countries and also tried to forge a partnership with china. at his time, the oil ministry worked more as the foreign ministry! i think we need someone pragmatic and having a good knowledge of world affairs alongwith good negotation skills

avneesh arputham said...

i agree with u that our biggest threat today comes from china. their govt is ruthless in all forms and can go to any extent to achieve their goals.

they are a silent enemy and can even use force to get results. but i believe that they would prefer not to use military force.. this is because they are a major economic power and would not like to compromise their economy because of a war! but inspite of that they would never shy away from using military force

also, we hav to keep in mind that the relations between US and china are getting hostile. inspite of their trade relations they constantly keep fighting over tyhe smallest of issues like the human rights record of china. also, the US's biggest asset is it's economy and the strength of the dollar. china has invested a lot of it's money in US t bills and bonds. thus it is very crucial for the US to avoid any possible conflict with china because if china was to withdraw it's money from US bonds then the dollar would collapse leading to a major economic crisis.

Achilles said...

Israel is definitely in the wrong when it goes on the offensive...But even more surprising is the way,U.S reacts to the whole situation..
The double standards applied to their judgements about various states is ridiculous..
And as far as the comment on India taking a leaf outta Israel's book is concerned, ifeel although a very appeling option in the present times,it would jeopardise the stability of the South-east asian region for a long time 2 come..

Last Man Standing... said...

thats true...Pakistan is not Lebanon and India is not Israel...the circumstances in both regions differ. And India can never muster the kind of support Israel has managed to get...though that support is largely American.

avneesh arputham said...

i agree with what achilles said but the thing i was referring to was the concept behind it. india is known as a soft state and terrorists take advantage of this. also, i agree that pak is not an easy opponent but it is true at the same time that india can easily beat pakistan - though it will not be an easy job. more importantly, we must clearly and definitely show our intent against terror by taking necessary action against the terror camps in pakistan

avneesh arputham said...

as far as diplomatic support is concerned, i dont think it is an important enough issue. israel only has the support of the US and Britain, and everyone else is either silent on the issue or have spoken out against it. this is primarily bcoz of the US influence. but at the same time we have to remember that we have a fair case and have often been victims of terror. so of we go ahead and attack the terror camps in POK, then the US has no right to stop us. if they can a fight a war on terror , then so can we!

Anonymous said...

yar it is high time that u write something on the nuclear issue. it has reached a critical stage and the bill is due to be passed in the US legislatures. Thus u must write it asap and giv peopl an opportunity to express their views on this crucial issue. anyway i hav postd sumthng on my community and u must chek it out